Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Low crime

Merry Christmas! (And please, if someone wishes you Happy Holidays, don't be offended).
We're packing up, ready to fly into Salt Lake late tonight.
Meanwhile, experts are confused as to why crime rates have dropped recently--especially since poor economic times usually lead to an increase in crime. (See, for example, this article.)
The article misses something obvious--something I predicted about a year ago. Living in Cincinnati, I've seen a bit of how Obama's presidency has affected blacks. I think a detailed study would show that blacks are committing less crime now than two years ago (because of a role model in the White House), while whites are committing more (due to the recession).
There may be other factors at work here, too, but Obama's presidency has raised test scores of black students (see this article). It would make sense if it also affected crime rates.
What do you think?

1 comment:

JorgenMan said...

I think there could be something to this. The commenters to the second article you linked don't really seem to get the point: Obama is extremely popular among blacks, and he's a good role model. I think positive role models can have a very strong influence on society. When you account for all the low-level change this could induce, a leader could influence more change as a role model than through political power.